Bird flu is an infection caused by avian (bird) influenza (flu) viruses. These flu viruses occur naturally among birds and wild birds worldwide carry the viruses in their intestines, but usually do not get sick from them. However, bird flu is very contagious among birds and can make some domesticated birds, including chickens, ducks, and turkeys, very sick and even kill them. The current outbreak of avian influenza A (H5N1) among poultry in Asia is an example of a bird flu outbreak that has caused human infections and deaths.
So far, spread of H5N1 (the virus type that infects humans) virus from person to person has been rare and spread has not continued beyond one person. Recent studies by the World Health Organization (WHO) show that a new strain of bird flu could develop, meaning the virus would spread from human to human. This has seen another set of steps being taken by various governments to ensure there is no second round of the deadly epidemic.
United States: The strain of H5N1 virus found in Asia and Europe has not yet been found in the United States with no human cases of H5N1 traced till now. However, it is possible that travelers returning from affected countries in Asia could be infected.
Interagency Screening Plan: An Early Detection System for Avian Influenza in Wild Migratory Birds
The interagency strategic plan, developed by wildlife disease biologists, veterinarians and epidemiologists, provides a unified national system for conducting H5N1 HPAI monitoring of wild migratory birds throughout the United States. The plan serves as a guide to all federal, state, university and non-governmental organizations involved in avian influenza monitoring by providing standard procedures and strategies for data sampling, diagnostics, and management.
Australia: The Australian Government has so far committed a total of $211 million on pandemic preparedness, including $170 million on the Australian health response and $41 million to help our regional neighbours. Measures include the purchase of 3.95 million courses of antiviral drugs. On a per capita basis, Australia has one of the largest stockpiles of antivirals in the world. The government has also purchased 25 thermal imaging screeners (which indicate body temperature) that could be deployed to airports within hours of a possible human pandemic outbreak. There is also a stockpile of 40 million surgical masks, 50 million syringes and the distribution of 303 ventilators to all Australian states and territories.
China: The Beijing-based vaccine producer Sinovac Biotech, the first in the world to develop SARS vaccine, has made preparations to produce human-use bird flu vaccine in mass quantity. Sinovac has installed a special production line for the human-use bird flu vaccine. Most world health experts are keen to see China reach a high level of transparency in the reporting and testing of bird flu cases, both with poultry and humans, since the densely populated country has the potential to become a large centre for the virus.
Singapore: The Singapore government won international praise in 2003 for its swift handling of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome crisis, with its actions keeping the human death toll from the local outbreak to 33. Government officials have vowed a similar response to the bird flu, which has led to the culling of tens of millions of chickens around Asia and the deaths of 19 people. National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan told parliament last week the country's 2.1 million commercial poultry would be culled as soon as the first signs of the bird flu were detected here. Singapore is taking no chances about the health of its people.
United Kingdom: The government of UK came up with a £1m program to protect key workers in the capital city of London from any outbreak of the flu. Antiviral drugs have been ordered to protect up to 100,000 police officers, transport workers and firefighters in London against bird flu. It is not possible to create a vaccine against the flu until the strain causing any pandemic was known. This could take months to develop, meaning antiviral treatment would be the first line of defence. Keeping this mind enough of the principal prevention drug, Tamiflu, for one in four of the population are kept in stock at any time.
Flu pandemic could cost U.S. $683 billion
Trust for America's Health (TFAH) released a new report that finds a severe pandemic flu outbreak could result in the second worst recession in the U.S. since World War II. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could drop over 5.5 percent, leading to an estimated $683 billion loss.
States with high levels of tourism and entertainment could be the hardest hit. Nevada's economy could face the biggest percent decline with a GDP loss of 8.08 percent, followed by Hawaii, which could experience a 6.60 percent loss. Six states could suffer losses over 6 percent (Nevada, Hawaii, Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Louisiana). The economies in an additional 21 states could drop more than 5.5 percent and every state could lose more than 5 percent in GDP.
States with government and real estate as major industries could suffer the lowest percentage losses. The economies of Virginia and Maryland could experience the lowest drops in GDP of any of the states, but would still face significant declines of 5.13 percent and 5.09 percent, respectively. Washington, D.C. could face a 4.62 percent decline.
"The U.S. is not prepared to face an economic shock of this magnitude," said Jeff Levi, PhD, Executive Director of Trust for America's Health. "While important government preparedness efforts focusing mainly on medical and public health strategies are underway, efforts to prepare for the possible economic ramifications have been seriously inadequate. Stepping up pandemic preparedness planning is vital to our national and economic security."
The report was funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts as part of the U.S. Pandemic Preparedness Initiative.
In the report "Pandemic Flu and the Potential for U.S. Economic Recession," TFAH created a model to assess the potential losses each state could face during a severe pandemic. Based on estimates from financial and economic experts, TFAH examined the impact of a pandemic on 20 different industries, trade, and worker productivity.
The model examines an outbreak as severe as the 1918 pandemic, which in modern terms could result in nearly 90 million Americans becoming sick and 2.2 million deaths. People who become ill are expected to take at least 3 weeks to recover, and others would miss significant time from work to take care of family members or stay home out of fear of potential exposure to the flu.
Additionally, the model incorporates predictions from experts of how consumer demand for products and services could drop in a number of industries. For instance, according to estimates, tourism, entertainment, and food services could experience an 80 percent decline, while agriculture, construction, retail trade, and finance and insurance could face a 10 percent loss in demand.
The estimates focus on possible losses over the course of a year during a scenario when a vaccine is not widely available. A real pandemic could last up to 18 months with a series of waves that last 6 to 8 weeks each.
TFAH's report recommends a series of measures businesses and community groups can take to help prepare for a possible pandemic, focusing on how to sustain essential operating functions during a major outbreak. The recommendations encourage the private sector and government at all levels to examine and modify family and medical leave policies; expand telecommuting capabilities; assess infection control procedures in the workplace; establish contingency systems to maintain delivery of goods and services during a pandemic event; and update methods for communicating with their workforce.
