Asian Bird Flu Pandemic
 What are the possible implications of an Asian Bird Flu Pandemic?
Governments are starting to take the threat posed by an AsianBird Flu pandemic extremely seriously. Most governments are stockpiling massive amounts of anti-viral medicines which they hope will be able to protect enough people to prevent huge damage to the economy. An example of the measures being taken by the British government is that they are paying £200 ($385) million to import enough of the drug to vaccinate approximately a quarter of the population and ameliorate the effects of a Bird Flu pandemic.
Who will receive the antiviral medicine?
There is still much debate as to who will receive the antiviral medicine, but it is expected that priority will be given to those people necessary to keep the economy running. This can range from those in such occupations as nurses and petrol tanker drivers because the scale of most countries economy is based on a whole range of fields. Police, army, emergency services, politicians and people that play a major part of the economy are expected to be vaccinated first should a Bird Flu pandemic strike.
Will Tamiflu work in an Asian Bird Flu Pandemic?
It is still unknown whether antiviral medicines will offer any protection against the virus in a Bird Flu pandemic although, provided it does its job of boosting the immune system, it will slow down the virus in those that have it and it should prevent the infection from spreading somewhat.
What plans are there to stop the flu spread?
Many governments are putting plans into place which could involve stopping the Bird flu at the source - Asia. It is still unknown what sort of scale the virus could develop to, but it is expected to make a worldwide Bird Flu pandemic. Governments are debating whether to send resources to the first affected countries or hold on to their stockpiles to protect their own nation. Various debates have arisen as to whether countries would vouch to protect themselves or help out third-world countries like Africa where it could be particularly deadly since various diseases like HIV would make people extremely vulnerable to the virus.
Analysis of a world-wide Asian Bird Flu Pandemic
The major scale of a Bird Flu pandemic will undoubtedly cripple many countries economies and could possibly result in around a billion deaths. It is hard to quantify what sort of damage (in human and economic terms) such a widespread Bird Flu pandemic could do. One thing for sure is that the world economy would take years to recover from a major pandemic. Recent examples of avian influenza outbreaks and infections were in Hong Kong in 1997, 1998, and 2002 and the ongoing widespread outbreaks of Avian Influenza among poultry in Asia, Africa and Europe. It has been 36 years since the last Asian Bird Flu pandemic
A world-wide strategy to shield the population against any outbreak is necessary as it is estimated that in case we have another outbreak of the virus, the world-wide implications will be serious as it will last much longer than most other emergency events and may include "waves" of several influenza activity. The numbers of health-care workers and first responders available to work can be expected to be reduced drastically; they will be at high risk of illness through exposure in the community and in health-care settings, and some may have to miss work to care for ill family members.
The risk from bird flu is generally low to most people because the viruses occur mainly among birds and do not usually infect humans. However, during an outbreak of bird flu among poultry (domesticated chicken, ducks, turkeys, etc), there is a possible risk to people who have contact with infected birds or surfaces that have been contaminated with excretions from infected birds. The current outbreak of avian influenza A (H5N1) among poultry in Asia, Africa and Europe is an example of a bird flu outbreak that has caused human infections and deaths. In such situations, people should avoid contact with infected birds or contaminated surfaces, and should be careful when handling and cooking poultry.
According to scientists it is only a matter of time until the next Bird Flu pandemic occurs. The severity of the next Bird Flu epidemic cannot be predicted, but studies suggest that its effect in the United States could be severe. Estimates suggest, in the absence of any control measures (vaccination or drugs) in the United States a "medium-level" outbreak could cause 89,000 to 207,000 deaths, between 314,000 and 734,000 hospitalizations, 18 to 42 million outpatient visits, and another 20 to 47 million people being sick. Between 15% and 35% of the U.S. population could be affected by an Asian Bird Flu pandemic, and the economic impact could range between $71.3 and $166.5 billion.
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